Pretty cool scenario and alt-history scheme there!
One thing though - and if you've read the Turtledove novels this'll already be apparent - but it's extremely likely that an independent CSA would have led to continuing war in America, and various overseas alliances (I really liked Turtledove's idea of the CSA with the Brits and French, and USA with Germany).
In that case, I think it's very likely the CSA would've developed at least some industrial capacity. Maybe not on par with the Yanks, but it'd be there. I mean...even the Italians had a decent aviation industry in WWII.
Now...I could totally see the CSA being a junior partner to France and the UK, and thus buying a lot of their stuff the way most of NATO flies F-16s or F/A-18s today, so a CSA Mirage or Tornado wouldn't be out of the question at all.
Of course, with a divided country, who's to say how aviation would have unfolded in the first place. The Wright Brothers were from Ohio, but the first flight took place in North Carolina...across what would have been a border.