My true gut feeling is this program will get cut by the new administration. That is my opinion and no one else's. I think the Army wants too much for the dollars available in the current and future economic conditions. As to your thoughts on the stripped down AH-64, I would bet that would lose a selection process because of size. This idea was once considered for the OH-58D when they thought about just using the cobra for a scout. Also, the AH-64 cost so much per flight hour.
I personnally hope the Augusta Bell 109 has a chance at the bid. I flew them in my civilian career before my current job and loved them. They are fast enough to keep up with the 64s and have enough room for growth potential and engine potential. I think they could become a great scout. If a single engine bird wins, I do hope it is the OH-6. I flew them and loved them much. I always said they were the corvettes of helicopters.
As I said earlier, I will be interested to see what the selection board selects. I have friends that will be on the selection board but they will not be able to tell me anything until the decision is made. They will be able to tell me who has entered but that is about all they will be able to tell me. I doubt a selection board will be setup prior to June or July. They still have an AROC and JROC to go through, which basically approves/validates their requirements document. Then when the aircraft is selected we will spend a year writing a production document. I'll keep you all posted with any news I find out, but in many cases you'll read about it from other news sources the same day I find out something.
Charlie